Groundhog Day?

[concerned]

cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/01/627079.aspx

Is there anything to the purported predictive power of Groundhog Day? Not much.

But is there anything at all to the idea that animals can "predict" the weather? You bet.

First, about those groundhogs: When you look back at the historical record, the Groundhog Day story appears to be a blend of several weather-related folktales. Long before the days of Doppler radar, Europeans put great stock in Feb. 2, or Candlemas Day on the church calendar, as a weather indicator at the halfway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox.

Clear weather on Candlemas was seen as a harbinger of snowy weather to come, while cloudy weather held the promise that things would get better in the weeks ahead. Some have speculated that there was a shred of meteorological truth behind the folktale: Clear skies in early February could be associated with persistent masses of cold, dry air that would prolong low temperatures, while cloudy skies could hint at wetter, more temperate days ahead.

The Germans added animal lore to their Candlemas story, saying that if the weather was sunny enough to scare a badger back into its hole, there were more wintry days to come. When German immigrants came to America (and settled in places like Punxsutawney, Pa.), the groundhog took the place of the badger.

If you look beyond groundhogs, you can find a number of cases where animal folklore contains a grain of scientific truth. An oft-cited example is this saying: "A cow's tail to the west is weather coming at its best; a cow's tail to the east is weather coming at its least."

It turns out that the saying encapsulates animal behavior as well as regional meteorology, at least according to North Carolina's State Climate Office. Animals tend to turn their backs into the wind, so that they have a chance of catching the scent of a predator that's sneaking up behind them. In New England, where the saying is thought to have originated, a west wind is likely to bring fair skies, while the onshore easterly breeze is associated with nasty weather.

Thus, the cow's tail could serve as a weathervane of sorts, indicating which way the wind is blowing and eventually giving rise to the folk saying

[frankcor]

Concerned, thanks for the summary. I learned from it.

The late Fritz Updike, former editor of the Rome Sentinel and local historian, relied on squirrels to predict the severity of the oncoming winter. The higher the squirrels in his yard carried their tails while gathering nuts and seeds, the more severe we could expect the winter to be. When the squirrels' tails are tucked up behind their heads, hang on; we are going to be in for a real cold and barn-flattening snowfall year.

[concerned]

gee i like that too i've seen the squirrels' do that this winter

[Swimmy]

I recall reading a study conducted in the 1970s to see if animals could really predict seismic activity. After one of the major earthquakes, scientists noticed that the animal population was frantic a few moments prior to an earthquake.

That's an interesting article you posted. It's interesting how more in tune with nature the rest of the animal kingdom is. Makes you wonder what the human race is doing wrong.

[frankcor]

I recall reading that almost no wildlife was killed along the east coasts of India and Africa by the 2004 Christmas tsunami. The animals headed for higher ground before the tsunami made landfall.

[Swimmy]

You recall correctly.