"Extreme Heat Belt" soon emerge in the U.S.

[Atticus Pizzaballa]

An "Extreme Heat Belt" will soon emerge in the U.S., study warns

Andrew Freedman

Andrew Freedman

, author of Axios Generate






Note: Shaded counties are those that will, on average, have 0.5 days or more at or above a 125F° heat index in 2053; Data: First Street Foundation; Map: Axios Visuals

A new study reveals the emergence of an "extreme heat belt" from Texas to Illinois, where the heat index could reach 125°F at least one day a year by 2053.



The big picture: In just 30 years, climate change will cause the Lower 48 states to be a far hotter and more precarious place to be during the summer.



The findings come from a hyperlocal analysis of current and future extreme heat events published Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation.

The new report is unique for examining current and future heat risks down to the property level across the country, and joins similar risk analyses First Street has completed for flooding and wildfires.


As average temperatures increase due to human-driven greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, instances of extreme heat are forecast to escalate.

This report makes clear where households will be vulnerable to what would now be considered almost unheard-of heat indices, which show how the air feels from the combination of air temperature and relative humidity.


Threat Level: The report, which is based on First Street's peer reviewed heat model, shows that the number of Americans currently exposed to "extreme heat," defined as having a maximum heat index of greater than 125°F, is just 8 million.



However, due to the anticipated warming during the next three decades, that number is expected to balloon to 107 million people, an increase of 13 times over 13 years.

The developing "Extreme Heat Belt" forms a region of vulnerability from northern Texas to Illinois, and includes the cities of St. Louis, Kansas City, Memphis, Tulsa and Chicago.

By 2030, some coastal areas in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic may also experience days with a heat index above 125°F, the report found.


Zoom in: The report shows a country that will have to grapple with the effects of increased heat exposure nearly everywhere, though there will be distinctions based on geography.



For example, the study finds that in 2053, the West will have the highest chance for long durations with "local hot days," which are days that exceed the temperatures typically experienced for a particular area.


The Gulf and Southeast will see the highest chances and longest duration of exposure to what are termed "dangerous days," with a heat index greater than 100°F, the report found.

Between the lines: The states likely to see the greatest growth in dangerous days are Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Florida, First Street's analysis found.



The counties with the largest changes in dangerous days between 2023 and 2053 are mainly located in Florida, led by the populous areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

The report shows how the characteristics of heat waves may change in the near future. Many spots currently see more than 20 straight days with heat indices above 100°F. However by 2053, such streaks could be as many as 74 consecutive days, the report states.


The study also sheds light on cooling demand driven by the increasingly hot conditions, including cooling-driven increases in carbon emissions, which would aggravate warming further.

And Texas, Florida, California, Ohio and Missouri constitute the top 5 states with the biggest cooling demand-related uptick in CO2 emissions between now and 2053, the report shows.

Meanwhile... The U.S. is already seeing the clear fingerprints of human-caused global warming on extreme heat events. Last month, for example, the country's nighttime lows were the warmest on record for any month.



Unusually hot overnight temperatures during heat waves increase the risk to public health of heat-related illness.

In addition, the number of warm temperature records outnumbered the cold temperature records by a ratio of nearly eight-to-one.

What's next: Communities are innovating to reduce the impacts of extreme heat and put in place better heat action plans, among other climate resilience steps.


www.axios.com/2022/08/15/extreme-heat-belt-global-warming

Burn baby burn!

[Clipper]

I have serious concerns for my kids and grandkids having to experience those conditions, but by 2053 I will probably be comfortably ensconced in a casket, a concrete vault, and cool earth.

Whether those changes and global warming are caused by man, or are found to be natural, the only hope is for man to find a way to combat that heat and adapt. People may find themselves confined living and working in air conditioned spaces, never spending extended periods outside. Life in a bubble-like man-made environment.

[Atticus Pizzaballa]

A 105-mile-long city will snake through the Saudi desert. Is that a good idea?

July 26, 20223:42 PM ET
BILL CHAPPELL

A tall and narrow stripe of a city more than 105 miles long, teeming with 9 million residents and running entirely on renewable energy — that's the vision Saudi Arabia's leaders have for The Line, part of a "giga-project" that will reshape the kingdom's northwest.

Newly revealed design concepts show a futuristic walled city — its open interior is enclosed on both sides by a mirrored façade — stretching from the Red Sea eastward across the desert and into a mountain range.

Details emerge about the monolithic city
New stats and designs revealed on Monday include:

It will be only 200 meters wide (roughly 220 yards);
It will rise 500 meters above sea level — higher than the Empire State Building;
Residents will be able to run errands with a five-minute walk;
There will be no cars or roads;
High-speed rail will carry people from end to end in 20 minutes;
It will cost hundreds of billions of dollars to build.

Construction has already begun, and Saudi projections call for 1.5 million people to live in The Line by 2030. The unconventional megacity is part of the government's ambitious Neom development project, which released conceptual videos showing the city's high walls enclosing trees, gardens and other plant life, nestling communities among work and recreational structures.



"The designs revealed today for the city's vertically layered communities will challenge the traditional flat, horizontal cities and create a model for nature preservation and enhanced human livability," Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said on Monday, as he unveiled the new designs.

The designers say the structure will maintain an ideal climate year-round, thanks to its mix of shade, sunlight and ventilation. But not everyone was as keen on the concept of living between gigantic walls in the Saudi desert.

"I never seen something more dystopian," one commenter wrote in reply to a video of The Line posted by the Saudi Press Agency.


Saudi projections call for 1.5 million people to live in The Line by 2030. The unconventional megacity is part of the Neom project, which released conceptual videos showing the city's high walls enclosing trees, gardens and other plant life, nestling communities among work and recreational structures.

It's like wanting to live on Mars, an expert says
The idea of solving urban problems by creating a city from scratch isn't new. It's been tried before, from Brasília and India's Chandigarh to Malaysia's Putrajaya and Masdar City in Abu Dhabi, as Carlos Felipe Pardo, a senior adviser to the New Urban Mobility Alliance, notes.

"This solution is a little bit like wanting to live on Mars because things on Earth are very messy," Pardo, who's based in Colombia, tells NPR via email.

Despite starting with a clean slate, such elaborate urban plans have generally "created new urban settings where problems have also arisen," Pardo says.


While he grants that the approach can take on some typical city challenges head-on, Pardo says that it doesn't help people already living with problems elsewhere.

Looking at designs for The Line, Pardo worries that its high-tech approach seems to ignore people's desire to simply go outside, to experience something in a city that isn't man-made.

"This seems impossible, greatly limited or just plain artificial," he says.

Still, Pardo adds, "I'm sure several characteristics of this design could be integrated into existing cities, and it would be great to have a way of doing so."

Questions arise about the futuristic city
While the project's supporters tout The Line's zero emissions and a smaller footprint than conventional cities, critics note that those utopian ideals will come at an environmental price, as an entirely new city is created in the desert.

Neom is led by bin Salman, who aims to diversify the kingdom's economy and help it respond to climate change. The project is bankrolled by the government's public investment fund.
www.npr.org/2022/07/26/1113670047/saudi-arabia-new-city-the-mirror-line-desert#:~:text=Press-,Saudi%20Arabia%20is%20building%20The%20Line%2C%20a%20new%20city%20enclosed,only%20about%20220%20yards%20wide.