Post by Atticus Pizzaballa on Nov 12, 2021 12:13:33 GMT -5
The Great Lakes are so warm, they might shape Upstate NY’s lake-effect snow season
Syracuse, N.Y. – Like the rest of us, the Great Lakes basked in a near-record warmth this summer and fall.
That means the lakes are much warmer than normal at this time of year. Does that mean Upstate New York will see an epic lake effect snow season?
Possibly, but it’s complicated.
Relatively warm lake water is an essential ingredient in the production of lake effect snow, but it’s not enough by itself. Lake effect snow requires cold enough air blowing over the lakes in just the right direction.
“You still need to have the right kind of pattern,” said Mark Wysocki, New York state climatologist.
The right lake effect snow pattern pushes cold air from Canada to the east and southeast, pulling evaporating water from the lakes and depositing it on land as snow.
Lake Ontario causes most of the lake effect snow in Central New York. As of Monday, the lake was 4 degrees warmer than the long-term average. That’s the warmest Ontario has been on Nov. 8 since 2016, when it was about a quarter of a degree warmer than now.
Upstate’s lake effect snow season has already begun: Parts of Western New York and the Tug Hill plateau got a few inches last week when a relatively cold blast of air blew across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. But so far, the air temperature has been too warm to generate any substantial lake effect snow.
That might change soon, said Paul Pastelok, a senior meteorologist with Accuweather. He said it looks like early next week and perhaps next weekend hold the key ingredients to produce some snow that could stick to the ground on the traditional lake effect belts. That includes parts of Central New York.
“We’re getting some colder air here in November, and there will be some lake effect,” he said.
Early next week, he said, there’s a chance of several inches of lake effect snow somewhere in Central New York. The weather service agrees, saying a flow of cold air from the northwest could generate bands of lake effect snow Monday into Tuesday.
“We will not have a good idea until much closer to that time period, but some accumulating snow is probable for the areas that end up getting impacted,” said the weather service’s Binghamton office, which forecasts for Central New York and the Finger Lakes.
Lake effect snow is notoriously tricky to forecast because bands of snow can be just a few miles wide and they can shift wildly with slight changes in wind direction. If winds blow from the west down the length of Lake Ontario, Tug Hill can get slammed. If winds shift and come from the northwest, Syracuse enters the crosshairs.
Overall, Pastelok predicts a normal to slightly above normal lake effect season for Upstate. It will take a while for the lakes to cool off and start to freeze, he said, so lake effect snow could fall longer than usual.
“With those water temperatures, waters will be open for business,” he said. “The extended season will give us more opportunities for lake effect.”
During the 2016-2017 season, Syracuse had 10 inches more snow than normal. There’s no way to break down how much comes from lake effect versus other types of storms, like nor’easters.
Lake Erie is about 3 degrees warmer than average. And Lake Huron, which can supply some lake effect snow to Upstate New York when the winds are right, is about 2.8 degrees above average.
A La Nina is developing this year, which generally means a colder winter for the northern half of the United States. Upstate New York is often on the very edge of La Nina’s influence, however, and this year the National Weather Service thinks Upstate New York will be slightly warmer and wetter than usual. That could mean a messy mix of more rain and less snow, Wysocki said.
Pastelok, though, thinks La Nina will bring plenty of cold air along the U.S.-Canada border and into Upstate New York, producing plenty of lake effect snow.
“We should see a lot more northern branch systems coming across, pulling some of that colder air over the Great Lakes at times,” he said. “I don’t think it’s going to be a record year, but I do think it’s going to be a good year.”
www.syracuse.com/weather/2021/11/the-great-lakes-are-so-warm-they-might-shape-upstate-nys-lake-effect-snow-season.html
So its anyone's guess